Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment (Tumasjan et al.)
Successful use of social media in las presidential campaign has established twitter as an integral part of political campaign toolbox
Goal: analyze on Twitter: 1. Deliberation, 2. Sentiment, 3. Prediction
Deliberation: Honeycutt and Herring – Twitter not only used for one-way comm, but 31% of all tweets direct a specific addressee. Kroop and Jansen – political internet discussion boards dominated by small # of heavy users
Sentiment: How accurately can Twitter inform us about the electorate’s political sentiment?
Prediction: can Twitter serve as a predictor of the election result?
Data: examined more than 100k tweets and extracted their sentiment using LIWC
Target: German federal election 2009
1. While Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation on substantive issues, this forum is dominated by heavy users
Two widely accepted indicators of blog-based deliberation:
-The exchange of substantive issues (31% of all messages contain “@”),
-Equality of participaion: While the distribution of users across groups is almost identical with the one found on internet message boards, we find even less equality of participation for the political debate on Twitter. Additional analyses have shown users to exhibit a party-bias in the volume and sentiment of messages.
2. The online sentiment in tweets reflects nuanced offline differences between the politicians in our sample.
-Leading candidates: Very similar profile for all leading candidates, only polarizing political characters, such as liberal leader and socialist, deviate in line with their roles as opposition leaders. Messages mentioning Steinmeir (coalition leader) are most tentative
3. Similarity of profiles is a plausible reflection of the political proximity between the parties
Key findings: high convergence of leading candidates, more divergence among politicians of governin grand coalition than among those of a potential right wing coalition
4. Activity on Twitter prior to election seems to validly reflect the election outcome (MAE 1.65%), and joint party mentions accurately reflect the political ties between parties.
From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series (Brendan O’Connor)
Here is the Call for Papers for the
Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM-10)
May 23-26, 2010
George Washington University, Washington, DC
Sponsored by the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
Tutorial Proposals: December 1, 2009
Paper Submission: January 8, 2010
Poster/Demo Submission: January 8, 2010
Paper Acceptance: March 3, 2010
Poster/Demo Acceptance: March 3, 2010
Workshop Submission: March 1, 2010
Camera Ready Copies: March 12, 2010
Featuring a keynote by:
Professor Bob Kraut, CMU,
on “Designing Online Communities from Theory”
Professor Michael Kearns, Computer and Information Science,
Univ. of Pennsylvania,
on “Behavioral Experiments in Strategic Networks”
Speakers in Special Sessions:
– Nicole Ellison, Dept. of Telecommunication,
Information Studies and Media, Michigan State Univ.
– James Pennebaker, Dept. of Psychology, Univ. of Texas, Austin
– S. Craig Watkins, Dept. of Radio, TV and Film, Univ. of Texas, Austin- Don Burke, CIA Directorate of Science and Technology, Intellipedia
– Haym Hirsh, National Science Foundation IIS Division Director
– Macon Phillips, U.S. White House, Head of New Media
Tutorial Speakers will include:
– Jake Hofman, Yahoo! Research,
“Large-scale social media analytics with Hadoop”
– Cindy Chung and James Pennebaker, Univ. Texas,
“Using LIWC to uncover social psychology in social media”
The recent 2009 ICWSM conference featured research into the nature of a wide range of social media. [flickrset id="72157618579371124" thumbnail="square" overlay="true" size="medium"] Some highlights: An Examination of Language Use in Online Dating Profiles Meenakshi Nagarajan, Marti Hearst Event Detection and…